Economic outlook Up next for the markets: August 22 – August 26

The state of the nation’s manufacturers and retailers will be on display this week with a bevy of data points set for release including a deep dive on everything from orders to productivity. First out of the gate is the S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite and Services PMI flashes for August. These data points measure activity and efficiency at U.S. manufacturers and service providers. With inflation high and rates rising, U.S. businesses have seen output and new orders decrease. Investors will be paying close attention to see if conditions worsened in August.

Also out this week is the advanced report on durable goods manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders for July. This is another key economic data point that tracks demand for big-ticket items. Despite the current environment, durable goods orders increased in June. Rounding out the manufacturing-related economic data is the advance reports on wholesale and retail inventories, both of which come out Friday. If inventory is rising it means demand is slowing, which was the case in June. Also on tap are weekly jobless claims as investors look for insight into how the job market and broader economy are performing.

Monday, August 22

There is no key economic data slated for release.

Tuesday, August 23

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMI Flashes for August are released. These economic data points measure activity as well as productivity at the nation’s manufacturers and service providers. In July, the PMIs fell to their lowest level in two years¹ as output and new orders fell. With inflation still elevated, interest rates rising and COVID-19 cases increasing, investors are bracing for more bad news when August’s reading is issued.

Wednesday, August 24

The advanced report on durable goods manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders for July is released by the U.S. Census Bureau. This tracks orders for big-ticket items. In June, durable goods orders were up 1.9%² year-over-year despite inflation and supply chain issues.

Thursday August 25

Initial and existing unemployment claims for the previous week will be published by the Labor Department. This weekly data point tallies the number of people filing for unemployment benefits and those who are continuing to collect. Initial jobless claims rose for the second week in a row, to 262,000.³

Friday, August 26

Advanced wholesale inventories for July are released by the U.S. Census Bureau. This helps investors get a sense of demand by tracking how much inventory the nation’s wholesalers are holding onto in warehouses. In June, inventories rose 25.6%⁴ year-over-year. The market will be paying close attention to see if inventories increase for another month amid record inflation and rising interest rates, as both pressure consumer spending.

Also Friday, advanced retail inventories are issued by the U.S. Census Bureau. This economic data point tracks the level of inventory at U.S. retailers and also provides a snapshot view of consumer spending habits. In June, inventories rose 19.9%⁵ year-over-year.